Canada's stock of residential heat pumps grew from 238,000 units in 2000 to 1,335,000 in 2023, according to a Canada Energy Regulator (CER) market snapshot published August 12, 2026. Heat pumps made up 7.9% of residential heating systems in 2023, up from 1.9%. The same snapshot shows that high-efficiency gas furnaces grew even faster in absolute numbers, which matters for anyone planning where the next decade of HVAC work will come from.
What the snapshot found
The short answer: strong heat pump growth from a small base, concentrated in Atlantic Canada, while gas and baseboard heat still dominate nationally.
Key figures from the CER page:
- 1,335,000 residential heat pumps in 2023, up from 238,000 in 2000.
- 83% of them are in single detached homes (1,108,000 units).
- High-efficiency natural gas heated 35.7% of households and electric baseboards 34.3% in 2023.
- High-efficiency gas equipment grew from 1,060,000 units in 2000 to 6,027,000 in 2023.
- The total stock of residential heating systems grew by 4.35 million between 2000 and 2023.
The CER describes heat pumps as about twice as efficient as either high-efficiency gas furnaces or baseboard heaters, and cites an NRCan estimate that switching from oil to a heat pump saves $1,500 to $4,500 a year.
The regional picture
Heat pump adoption is very uneven. In 2023, heat pumps were 40% of home heating systems in New Brunswick, 23% in PEI, 21.5% in Nova Scotia and 16% in Newfoundland and Labrador. Looking at all heat pumps added between 2000 and 2023, Quebec accounted for 36%, British Columbia 16%, Ontario 15% and New Brunswick 13%.
The shift away from oil is clearest in the Atlantic provinces. The CER reports that Nova Scotia had 78,261 fewer oil-heated homes over two decades while adding 90,379 heat pumps, and New Brunswick lost 34,705 oil-heated homes while adding 142,414 heat pumps. In 2023, 19% of Atlantic households still used heating oil, against 2% in the rest of Canada (territories excluded).
About the data
The snapshot draws on NRCan's energy use database and checks trends against Statistics Canada's survey of primary heating systems. The CER notes that part of the faster recent growth reflects a data revision that brought historical figures closer to Statistics Canada's. Readers comparing these numbers with older reports should keep that in mind; the CER and the NRCan Greener Homes progress update count different things.
What it means for contractors (analysis)
This section is our analysis, not part of the CER snapshot.
The installed base is the business. Six million high-efficiency gas furnaces and more than a million heat pumps all need maintenance, repairs and eventual replacement. For most contractors, a steady maintenance-plan customer base is worth more than chasing each new program. That argues for marketing that builds repeat customers: reviews, reminders and strong local search.
Atlantic Canada is a service market now. Where 40% of homes already heat with a heat pump, the questions homeowners search for change from "should I switch?" to "why is my heat pump icing up?" and "how often should it be serviced?". Content and ads should follow. See our New Brunswick and Nova Scotia pages.
Ontario and the West are still conversion markets. With 58% of Ontario households and 76% of Alberta households on natural gas (Statistics Canada, 2023, as summarised on our province pages), there is room for both furnace replacement and heat pump or dual-fuel conversions. Contractors there can market both without contradiction, provided their pages explain the trade-offs honestly.
Single detached homes are the core. With 83% of heat pumps in detached houses, contractors aiming at condos and townhomes face a different sale: strata approvals, shared walls and limited space. Separate landing pages for those buyers usually perform better than one generic page. Our paid search service splits campaigns that way.
Questions to ask of your own market
Before acting on national numbers, a contractor can test them against local reality with four quick checks:
- What share of your last 100 calls were for gas equipment, heat pumps, boilers or water heaters?
- How many of your heat pump customers were converting from oil, propane or baseboards, and how many were adding cooling?
- How old is the average system you service, and when will the cohort installed during the grant years start needing major repairs?
- Which searches bring visitors to your site today, and do any of them mention heat pumps at all?
If the answers show your business is mostly gas replacement in a gas-heated region, the snapshot is a reason to add dual-fuel and heat pump pages, not to abandon furnaces.
Related coverage
The federal plan to fund up to 820,000 more heat pumps is covered in our story on the National Heat Pump Rebate Program. All stories are in the newsroom.
HVACNews.ca is a newsroom and marketing service for HVAC companies. We are not an HVAC contractor and do not install equipment.
Frequently asked questions
What share of Canadian homes heat with a heat pump?
The Canada Energy Regulator puts heat pumps at 7.9% of residential heating systems in 2023, up from 1.9% in 2000. Territories are excluded from its provincial data.
What is the most common heating system in Canada?
According to the snapshot, high-efficiency natural gas heated 35.7% of households in 2023 and electric baseboards 34.3%, making them the two most common types.
Where are heat pumps most common?
New Brunswick leads, with heat pumps making up 40% of home heating systems in 2023, followed by PEI at 23%, Nova Scotia at 21.5% and Newfoundland and Labrador at 16%.