Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) has published a progress update on its Greener Homes programs, current to January 2026. The update page, last modified February 25, 2026, reports 281,278 new heat pumps installed with federal support since 2020, more than 404,000 households that completed retrofits under the now-closed Greener Homes Grant, and $339.6 million issued through the Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program. The figures show clearly where the last five years of rebate-driven HVAC work went.
The headline numbers
The short answer: heat pumps dominated, and the work was heavily concentrated in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
From the NRCan page:
- 281,278 heat pumps installed with federal support since 2020, across all programs.
- 404,956 households completed retrofits and received a Greener Homes Grant, with $1.8 billion issued and an average grant of $4,439.
- Under that grant, 6 in 10 homeowners chose a heat pump, and the top retrofits were heat pumps (228,000), windows and doors (145,110), insulation (73,603), air sealing (71,677) and solar panels (38,424).
- The Oil to Heat Pump Affordability (OHPA) program had 52,222 applications, 29,921 grants issued, an average grant of $11,352 and 28,454 heat pumps installed.
Where the heat pumps went
NRCan's provincial breakdown of federally supported heat pumps shows a lopsided map:
| Province or territory | Heat pumps installed |
|---|---|
| Ontario | 104,943 |
| Quebec | 70,062 |
| Nova Scotia | 33,648 |
| British Columbia | 30,933 |
| New Brunswick | 15,895 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 10,089 |
| Prince Edward Island | 9,822 |
| Alberta | 2,720 |
| Manitoba | 1,440 |
| Saskatchewan | 250 |
| Yukon | 116 |
The OHPA figures tell a similar story. Nova Scotia (19,663 applications) and PEI (14,014) far outpaced larger provinces. NRCan notes that Nunavut homes were ineligible for OHPA because homes had to be connected to an integrated electricity grid.
The status of each program
The Greener Homes Grant is closed: intake ended in February 2024 and the final documentation deadline was December 31, 2025. OHPA has also closed to new applicants in the provinces it served nationally; our areas hub records the closing dates we verified. Federal support now runs through the Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program in provinces with agreements, and the announced National Heat Pump Rebate, which launches in 2027.
What it means for contractors (analysis)
This section is our analysis, not part of NRCan's update.
Prairie contractors are looking at an untouched market. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba together account for fewer than 4,500 of the 281,278 federally supported heat pumps. Gas heating dominates there and cold-climate concerns are real, but a new national rebate with a simple process could open demand where few local competitors have built expertise. Our Alberta and Saskatchewan pages describe those markets.
Atlantic contractors are working in a mature market. In Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick, many oil-heated homes have already switched. The next wave of work there is more likely to be service, maintenance, second-zone additions and replacements of early units than first-time conversions. Marketing should shift accordingly.
Program-driven demand stops when programs stop. The grant years produced a surge, then a cliff. Contractors whose leads came mostly from rebate traffic need a base of maintenance customers, reviews and organic search that does not depend on the next program. That is the core argument behind our local search service.
Use the numbers in your own content. Official figures like these make credible material for a contractor's blog or service page, provided they are cited and dated. A sentence such as "according to NRCan, more than 104,000 Ontario homes installed heat pumps with federal support by January 2026" is more persuasive than a vague claim.
How to read these figures
A few cautions help when using the update. The heat pump count of 281,278 covers all federal programs, including support delivered with provincial co-delivery partners, so it overlaps with provincial program totals. The Greener Homes Grant figure of 228,000 heat pumps is a subset of that national count, and NRCan said the final number could reach 250,000 once all files were processed. The update also states averages for savings and emissions per household, which are program estimates rather than metered results. When you quote any of these numbers, cite the NRCan page and its date.
Related coverage
The Canada Energy Regulator's own count of heat pumps, which uses a different data series, is covered in our story on its August 2026 market snapshot. For cited data on HVAC marketing itself, hvac.report collects public figures in one place.
HVACNews.ca reports on the HVAC trade and provides marketing services to HVAC contractors. We are not a contractor and do not install equipment.
Frequently asked questions
How many heat pumps has federal support helped install?
NRCan's January 2026 update counts 281,278 new heat pumps installed with federal support since 2020, including support delivered with provincial partners.
Is the Canada Greener Homes Grant still open?
No. NRCan says applications ran from May 2021 to February 2024 and the documentation deadline was December 31, 2025. Some submitted files were still being processed at the time of the update.
Which province installed the most federally supported heat pumps?
Ontario, with 104,943, followed by Quebec with 70,062, according to the update.