Ontario is the largest HVAC market in Canada. In 2023, 58% of households heated mainly with natural gas, 18% with electricity and 4% with propane, according to Statistics Canada. Ontario also installed the most federally supported heat pumps of any province, 104,943 by January 2026 according to NRCan. Competition is intense, programs are active, and TSSA has been reminding homeowners to check who they hire.
The market and its buyers
The short answer: very large, very competitive city markets, plus a north with its own seasonality.
Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham and Vaughan together form one crowded metro market where dozens of contractors chase the same searches. Ottawa, Hamilton and London are large markets in their own right. Buyers range from detached homeowners replacing furnaces and air conditioners, to condo and townhouse owners with limited options, to landlords of older rental housing, to rural households on propane or oil. Northern Ontario's longer, colder winters create a market closer to the Prairies.
Because so many contractors compete for the same searches, Ontario rewards companies that differentiate clearly: by specialty, by neighbourhood, by service speed or by honesty about price.
Climate and seasonality
Southern Ontario has cold winters moderated near the Great Lakes, and hot, humid summers that make air conditioning a real second season. That gives southern contractors two peaks: heating replacement from October to January, and cooling from late May through July. The north has longer, colder heating seasons and a shorter cooling window.
Regulators to know
- TSSA regulates fuels (natural gas, propane, fuel oil), boilers and pressure vessels. Only registered fuels contractors using certified gas technicians may do fuels work. Its March 2026 public warning urged homeowners to verify contractors.
- The Electrical Safety Authority licenses electrical contractors; only licensed contractors may bid on or advertise electrical work.
- Skilled Trades Ontario for trade certification, and WSIB for workplace insurance.
We link these bodies; compliance questions belong with them.
Programs as of October 2026
- Home Renovation Savings Program. Run by Save on Energy and Enbridge Gas with provincial support, it lists rebates of up to $7,500 for cold-climate air source heat pumps and up to $12,000 for ground source, plus smart thermostats and, after an assessment, envelope work. No closure notice was posted when checked.
- Energy Affordability Program. Free upgrades for income-eligible households through Save on Energy, including a limited-time stream offering free cold-climate heat pumps for eligible oil-heated homes.
- No CGHAP agreement for Ontario as of October 22, 2026.
- National Heat Pump Rebate, due in 2027; see our story.
What we're watching in Ontario
Two questions dominate. Will the Home Renovation Savings Program change once the federal rebate launches in 2027, and will the Energy Affordability Program's limited-time oil-to-heat-pump stream end? We are also following TSSA's fuels safety notices, since its March 2026 campaign suggests registration will stay a public theme.
How we'd approach marketing in Ontario
- Pick your neighbourhoods. In dense markets, trying to rank everywhere means ranking nowhere. Focus local search and pages on the areas you actually want.
- Show registration and licensing. After TSSA's campaign, a visible "TSSA-registered fuels contractor" line, with your exact registered name, is a practical trust signal.
- Run two seasons. Separate heating and cooling campaigns with their own budgets and landing pages.
- Keep rebate pages current. Ontario contractors juggle provincial rebates now and a federal rebate later; our program pages keep both straight.
- Address condos and townhomes separately. Different equipment, approvals and buyers.
Ontario contractors can also find the group's work through HVAC.Digital, a Sedighi.ca brand, at hvac.digital. Among our named HVAC results, Roma Heating & Cooling grew organic traffic 400% in 12 months. Call, text or email through the contact page. We are a marketing service, not an HVAC contractor.
Frequently asked questions
Who can do gas work in Ontario?
TSSA says only TSSA-registered fuels contractors and certified fuel technicians may install, service or maintain fuel-burning appliances. Homeowners can check registration with TSSA's contractor lookup.
What heat pump rebates does Ontario offer?
As of October 2026, the Home Renovation Savings Program lists up to $7,500 for a cold-climate air source heat pump and up to $12,000 for ground source. Confirm current terms with Save on Energy.
Does Ontario have a federal affordability agreement?
When the data we rely on was checked on October 22, 2026, Ontario had not signed a CGHAP deal. Income-eligible households can look at Save on Energy's Energy Affordability Program.
Sources
- Technical Standards and Safety Authority (TSSA) (2026-10-22)
- Electrical Safety Authority (2026-10-22)
- Skilled Trades Ontario (2026-10-22)
- WSIB (2026-10-22)
- Save on Energy: Home Renovation Savings Program (2026-10-22)
- Save on Energy: Energy Affordability Program (2026-10-22)
- Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01 (2026-10-22)